Chance Of Colliding With Moon In 2032, Posing Risks To Earth-Orbiting Assets

A building-sized asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has a 4 percent chance of colliding with the moon in 2032. This asteroid, estimated to be roughly 60 meters wide, may scatter tiny meteorites into near-Earth space if it strikes the moon, posing risks to Earth-orbiting assets, satellites, and astronauts. According to NASA aerospace engineer Brent Barbee, the impact could release energy equivalent to 6 million metric tons of TNT, approximately 400 times the energy released by the Hiroshima bomb.

The asteroid was first detected in December 2024, and initial observations suggested a possible collision with Earth, with odds peaking at 3. 1 percent on February 18. However, further observations ruled out this possibility. The odds of a lunar impact have since risen slightly, with the estimated collision date set for December 22, 2032. From a viewing perspective, Hawaii would have an excellent vantage point, while views from the western United States would be “fairly favorable,” noted astronomer King from the Johns Hopkins University Applied Physics Laboratory. Scientists currently lack precise information on YR4’s size and mass, making deflection challenging.

A more practical approach might involve intentionally breaking up the asteroid using a fast-moving impactor or a ← →