NASA Tracks Asteroid 2024 YR4: A Potential Lunar Impact With A Flash As Bright As Venus
Scientists are currently staring at a ballistic trajectory that ends in a cosmic spark. While early calculations suggested a terrifying three percent chance of this 200-foot rock slamming into Earth, refined data has shifted the crosshairs toward the lunar surface. It is a scientific jackpot. Astronomers at NASA and the European Space Agency are tracking 2024 YR4 as it prepares for a potential rendezvous with the Moon on December 22, 2032. The rock is massive.
Moving at nine miles per second, the asteroid would gouge a crater roughly half a mile wide into the southern lunar plains, releasing kinetic energy that translates into a visible, minutes-long flare for anyone looking up from Earth.
The TL;DR
Asteroid 2024 YR4 has a 4% chance of hitting the Moon in late 2032. The impact could create a flash as bright as Venus, visible to the naked eye if it hits the Moon’s dark side.
Earth is safe, but the lunar surface may get a new 500-foot-deep crater.
Catch up quick
Last year, 2024 YR4 triggered brief concern when its Earth-impact probability spiked to 3.1 percent, the highest ever recorded for an object of its size. Data eventually cleared our planet, but the Moon remains a target.
New simulations published on the preprint server arXiv suggest an impact at 10:19 a.m. EST during the 2032 winter solstice. The strike would generate a thermal glow detectable by infrared sensors for hours after the initial flash fades. This event offers an unprecedented window for researchers to study lunar quakes and crater formation in real-time. Knowledge is our shield.
Did you know?
A magnitude of -2.5 is remarkably bright.
This means the impact flash could temporarily outshine almost every star in the night sky, matching the brilliance of Venus under the right conditions. Human eyes would see the kinetic energy converted into heat and light. It is a rare celestial coincidence. We have never had a decade of lead time to prepare for a lunar impact of this magnitude.
The math is firm.
By analyzing the cooling molten rock through infrared wavelengths, global agencies will turn a collision into a masterclass in planetary defense and lunar geology.
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