Revisiting Jesse Schell’s 2015 VR Predictions: A Decade Of Optimism And Reality Check

As the virtual reality (VR) industry celebrates its tenth anniversary, a retrospective analysis of Jesse Schell’s 2015 predictions reveals a fascinating insight into the hopes and visions of an emerging industry. Schell, a renowned VR pioneer, formulated 40 predictions about the development of VR by 2025, which now serve as a benchmark to assess the industry’s progress. Schell’s forecasts were characterized by an optimistic tone, driven by the conviction that gamers were eager for new experiences and that VR would satisfy this need.

He predicted exponential growth, with portable VR headsets selling a billion times by 2022. However, this projection proved to be a spectacular misjudgment, as these approaches were discontinued in 2019 due to lack of success. Despite this, Schell’s assumption that gaming would drive the adoption of VR proved correct.

Nevertheless, he overestimated the industry’s growth, as even technically demanding, wired VR headsets for gamers fell short of his expectations. The VR gaming industry still accounts for less than one percent of the total revenue of the gaming industry. A significant barrier to VR adoption was the industry’s underestimation of the inertia of gamers’ habits. The requirement to wear heavy technology on one’s face and be physically active while playing proved to be a substantial ← →