Shifting The Balance Of Power

I misjudged the timeline for the Dragonseed mobilization. I thought the writers would hold the riders back until the finale. The Feb 23 teaser proves me wrong. Recruits are mounting beasts right now. This shift ends the stagnation of the previous chapters. The dragons Silverwing and Vermithor give Rhaenyra a lead in the count of wings.

I can’t look at these statistics and say the Greens have the upper hand, but can you? The math of the war changed during a single afternoon of filming. While the Green faction maintains control over the physical architecture of the capital city and the iron seat of authority, the sudden acquisition of the largest dragons in the world shifts the probability of victory toward the Blacks by a margin that no amount of infantry or gold can hope to close.

Pulling the shades

The strategy focuses on the blockade.

The Blacks need the sea lanes open for supplies. Dragons provide the only solution to the ships of the Triarchy. The footage shows the fleet under fire. Data from Yahoo Entertainment confirms the Triarchy lacks weapons to stop a dragon like Vermithor. This is the moment the script moves from words to fire.

Which brings me to the actual battle. The producers are putting the biggest fights at the start of the season to keep viewership high. Wait, there’s more. The transition from threats to aerial combat marks a permanent departure from the slow pace of the previous season.

Bonus background

The Dragonseeds come from the population of Dragonstone. They share blood with House Targaryen. History from George R.R. Martin books suggests these riders bring unpredictable personalities to the conflict.

The inclusion of Addam of Hull on Seasmoke adds a third wing to the new recruits. I had this nightmare where the pacing stayed slow for another year, but the data confirms the showrunners opted for acceleration. This expands the tactical options for the Blacks beyond the immediate family members.

I bet you never realized

• Dragon riders with no noble title disrupt the social hierarchy of Westeros.
• A dragon without a rider acts as a liability in a dogfight.
• The Triarchy alliance marks the first time a foreign power enters the succession conflict.
• Urban combat in King’s Landing becomes a probability if the blockade fails.
• The size of Vermithor equals the width of a city block.